PENDUDUK INDONESIA MENJELANG TAHUN 2000 PENINGKATAN HARAPAN HIDUP DAN KELOMPOK USIA TUA

Abstract

According to the theory of demographic transition, Indonesia is now in the second phase of demographic transition. Mortality rates are decreasing and life expectancy is increasing.

At present, the mortality rate is estimated at 8 per thousand and infant mortality rate at 68 per thousand. Based on those levels of mortality, life expectancy at birth is around 60 years. By the year 2000 life expectancy will be around 65 years.

The age structure of the population towards the year 2000 will undergo some changes : the proportion of age groups 0-4 and 5-9 will consistantly decrease while the age group 55 and over will increase (up to 10% of the population). The decrease in the 0-4 age group is caused by a succesful family planning programme. It is expected that the birth rate will be around 20 per thousand by the year 2000.

The increase in the old age group, although still relatively small is an increasingly important problem which we have to face by the year 2000.