Prospective study for the production of oleochemicals derivates from palm and palm kernel oil in Colombia

Abstract

There are many ways get close to the future, being the prospective the one that concives the future, not like an unique reality but like a multiple one, obtained as a result of the identification of the human being future actions. For all this, the human being takes the knowledge, the yearnings and the fears that he sees for the actions he will undertake.

Keeping in mind the characteristic of the palm cultivation (pereninal, of late growth, with a 25 years productive horizon), and the future of the sector captured in "Visión y estrategias de la palmicultura colombiana 2000 - 2020" together with the economic tendencies of the world, the methodology of planning denominated prospective, becomes an appropriate tool to establish the future of the oleochemical sector derived from the palm and palmist oils, which is right now very incipient in our country.

Using the prospective, this article outlines the dynamics that will have the sector, starting from the definition of the keys that define the current and future behavior of the system, the position and the power that each one of the involved actors will have, and the determination of the scenarios (future representations) will more probability to occur, as well as the definition of the scenario wanted and the strategies that will allow to reach it.